Sunday, March 04, 2007

Re: The Future of PL/Scopac Land Holdings

As bankruptcy lawyer Peter Clapp made clear at the Fortuna Riverlodge the other night, the crux of the issue regarding Pacific Lumbers land holdings is;

A: What is the property value worth?
If the property is worth less than the debt the shareholders (majority Maxxam) lose control. If the land is worth more they will stay in control.

B: Feasibility
What is a sustainable rate of harvest? Can the company come up with enough funds to pay the debt? Will the new buisness strategy be acceptable to enviro’s thereby avoiding expensive lawsuits and direct action such as road blockades etc.?

Through researching information from logging plan documents, a timber practices monitor has come up with some figures that may answer some of these questions.

Lacking the time to simplify the info right now I present excerpts for readers to analyze for themselves. [words in brackets are mine]

"I found that ... something less than 7.5% (14,835 acres) is accessible LSF [late seral forest]. Late Seral Forest: Areas with trees that average over 24 in DBH [diameter at breast hight] and have begun developing a multi storied structure. It occurs in redwood stands as young as 40 years but is usually found in stands more than 50 years old.

We can also assume a significant portion of this 7.5% is in riparian areas (and therefore logging is restricted there). I assume that some portion of the mid successional (36%, 71,207 acres) is also harvestable, but only marginally so. Overall, about 1/2 0f their land is trees less than 11 in dbh (~20 years). not good.

Mid Seral Forest (Mid-Sucessional is not defined but I assume these are the same): Areas with trees 12-24 inches DBH. Stands are generally 20-50 years old and lack a shrub layer."


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